[SMM Analysis] Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuate Upward

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed an upward trend with fluctuations, and market sentiment recovered compared to the previous period. Price-wise, the center of the spot market steadily moved higher. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price rose from 92,150 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week (November 24) to 93,300 yuan/mt on Thursday (November 27); the industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price also climbed from 89,750 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 90,850 yuan/mt on Thursday. In the futures market, the most-traded contract completed its rollover, and futures prices showed a sideways movement pattern this week, with the most-traded contract (2605) trading in the range of 95,500–98,700 yuan/mt on Thursday.

Supply side, lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates overall, with spodumene and salt lake sources remaining the primary suppliers. Domestic lithium carbonate production in November is expected to remain at October’s level, roughly flat MoM. Demand side demonstrated strong momentum: the power battery sector benefited from rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEV markets, while the ESS market continued to see robust supply and demand, with supply remaining tight, together providing solid support for lithium carbonate demand.

Market transactions, downstream material plants showed high sensitivity to price fluctuations. When futures prices were relatively low (e.g., in the 90,000–92,000 yuan/mt range), point-price purchasing increased slightly, and market activity picked up; as prices rose, downstream players returned to a cautious wait-and-see approach, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand, leading to overall sluggish market turnover.

Downstream battery cell and cathode material enterprises saw a slight MoM increase in production in November compared to October, while lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline significantly in November. Looking ahead, supported by both supply-demand fundamentals and market sentiment, lithium prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.